Monday, May 2, 2016

Millennials are the only democrats voting for Bernie in high numbers and other inconvenient Primary facts.



There is so much emotion in this election on both sides of the political spectrum that Truthiness has way too often made it's way to where the truth and facts should reside.

There have also been some things that have left me perplexed, such as many Bernie and Trump voters thinking they have more in common than with members of their own party, or the massive amount of free publicity that Mr. Trump is getting, I can't watch the news any more, even the supposedly liberal MSMBC can't get enough of him.  "What are we going to do today?"  Joked one CNN reporter, half seriously "Mr. Trump has not been on the airwaves the past two days...."

So how much free media has Mr. Trump been getting?

I have to admit I am a bit surprised by the fact that Hillary, while not getting as much media as Trump, is getting more than any of the others, my own perception was that she was getting less than most of the others.  Again, looking at facts rather than relying on perception can dramatically change our own view of how the world actually works, vs how we think it does.

But this post is not an anti Trump post, it is an attempt to add some clarity and bring some numbers to what has been a presidential primary season that is seriously lacking in both.

So let me go back to the Trumpites vs Bernie bro bromance, is it really true that Trump and Bernie have more in common than Bernie has with Bernie, or Trump does to the other republicans in the field?  I guess it depends (as with everything) on what metric you choose.

Personally I think that one of the great unifiers between the two camps is the visceral dislike they both have for Hillary Clinton.  But is there more?  Is Hillary really a secret radical conservative and is Trump really a liberal in hiding that is secretly a bleeding heart liberal?  It is true that Hillary is more to the right than many of the young liberals today, and that Trump on many social issues is more to the right than some of his republican palls, but just how centrist are they compared to the pack?


So it would seem that just looking at their views on a range of subjects, Hillary and Bernie are closer to each other ideologically than Bernie and Trump.  Trump and Kasich are not moderates, they are conservatives, again I was surprised that the only real moderate was Chris Christie, I thought that Kasich and Bush might have been closer to that middle square.  Oddly enough both Bernie and Cruze are at the opposite sides of their respective political views, not odd that they are, but odd how different the conversation around them is.  Why is it that in Bernie's case, being a radical Liberal is OK but in Cruz's case it is not?  I am not saying that it should not be that way, I am just throwing out the question because it made me stop and think and wonder a little.

Here is another way of looking at this information.




And here is how the voters voting for the candidates feel about various issues.



Also is Bernie really doing as well as we are led to believe with Democrats?  The narrative is that only older women (a prime voting block, not previously dismissed as it is this election year) and blacks are voting, but in reality, most Dems are voting for Hilary.



So this brings us to my next question.  Is politics really more polarized than it used to be?  It sure feels that way.


The graphs above really gave me pause.  I mean I knew that it was happening, but the shift in political leanings of both Republicans and Democrats over the past few years is just astonishing.  No wonder it is so hard for people to listen to each other, there is much less overlap in ideology.   But the shift is even bigger if you look at registered voters rather than the general population


What is fascinating about this is aside from the major chasm in ideology between voters in the two parties, is that while the general population leans slightly left, registered voters lean slightly right, less so than before, but still they do lean right.

But I have a feeling that will change when the 97 million millennia's start coming of age and the silent generation is no more.


The other thing that is so fascinating about this year is just how differently people in the two parties see how their lives and the country is going.  Much has been made of how angry people are, but not everyone is angry, and those that are not angry are voting Democratic and most of those are voting for Hillary.  Apparently there are a lot of happy donkeys lots of very sad Elephants around this year.  Which brings us to another difference between Sander's and Trump voters, most of Sander's voters don't seem as angry as the miserable Trump voters...not a slur..they really just don't seem very happy from the data below.



One has to ask the question though, is life really much worse for the republicans than it is for the democrats?  If not, why do the two groups see the same reality so differently?

So let's tackle some other Truthinesses.  Lets look at honesty.  Much has been made of Lying Ted and Hillary's dishonesty, while Trump and Bernie have been touted as "saying it like it is!"   Truthiness or truth?

Truthiness it would seem.
  

Both Trump and Cruz seem to have some issues with the truth, while Bernie seems to be better at telling mostly true things.  However most of what comes out of Hilary's moth is true, only Kasich seems to be doing better than she is.  So while Kasich might not be as liberal as one may think, at least he is honest. still his pant's on fire number is higher than that of either Democrat.

Lets talk a little about money :)  It is of course one of the biggest reasons many people are voting the way they do this year, in the hopes that with the right President selected, more of it will come their way.



To hear the media, and Bernie talk, I though Hillary was making much more of her money from the financial sector, sure it is much more than Bernie and more than some republicans are making, but it is only about 7% compared to a whopping 25% or more for Lindsey Graham, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie.

So we come to the last great myth, qualifications.  It seemed fair to me to look at what previous presidents did before they became president and compare it to what the candidates running today have done in their own past.  So who has the most or the least qualifications?


So yes, based on the qualifications of previous presidents, Hillary is the most qualified, with Trump being the least.  Now this is just my way of looking at it and if you look in terms of years in public service, Bernie wins hands down, if you look at corporate experience, then Trump and Carly of course win out, with Carson not far behind.  As with many things this season I guess it is simply a matter of how you look at it.

Finally, I was curious about the gender differences in hiring of campaign staff and I have to admit that while I was not surprised by some things, there were other things in the data below that did surprise me (Carly, blew everyone away with percent women hired, with a whopping 75%, I had already made the graph before I got curious and went back to look at her numbers). I did not include staff in regional office.



Finally, when you think about the election and wonder why it has turned out the way it has in the past few years, the answer is pretty simple:  Demographics, Demographics, Demographics




I hope this has given you something to think about, to turn down the heat and cut through some of the emotional

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About Me

I am always fascinated by the disconnect between what the world is telling us and what we choose to believe. I hope this blog causes you to think about what you are being told by those around you, by the media and politicians. I don't expect you to agree with me and I graph things that are of interest to me, the point is not to bring you to my point of view, but to show you that sometimes the world is not the way we think it is.